Official immigration data shows a staggering 74% rejection rate, up from just 32% in August 2023, reflecting Ottawa’s heightened scrutiny of applications amid strained bilateral ties and a sweeping crackdown on fraudulent documents.

According to Reuters, while global student permit refusal rates hovered around 40% in both years, rejection rates for Chinese students were far lower at just 24%. The number of Indian applicants also plunged — from 20,900 in August 2023 to just 4,515 this year — yet India continued to record the highest denial rate among all nations with over 1,000 accepted applicants.

Diplomatic freeze deepens divide

The surge in refusals comes as relations between New Delhi and Ottawa remain tense. Diplomatic ties soured after former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau alleged Indian involvement in the 2023 killing of a Canadian Sikh separatist leader — an accusation New Delhi has categorically rejected.

The fallout has rippled through education and immigration channels, historically the strongest links between the two nations.

fraud checks tightened after fake letter scandal

Immigration authorities say the clampdown is part of an intensified effort to weed out fraudulent study permit applications. In 2023, Canadian officials uncovered over 1,550 fake study visa files — most tied to forged admission letters issued by Indian agents.

Enhanced verification systems flagged more than 14,000 suspicious documents worldwide last year, prompting tougher financial and document verification norms for all international students.

An Indian Embassy spokesperson in Ottawa said the mission had “taken note of the alarming rejection trend,” emphasizing that Indian students “continue to rank among the world’s top academic performers.”

Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand, however, defended the government’s stance, saying during her October visit to India that Ottawa remains “committed to welcoming Indian students” but must “protect the integrity of the immigration system.”

Universities feel the impact as Indian enrolments collapse

The repercussions are already visible across Canadian campuses. At the University of Waterloo — home to the country’s largest engineering school — Indian enrolments in undergraduate and postgraduate programmes have plunged by nearly two-thirds over the past four years.

Ian VanderBurgh, the university’s associate vice-president for strategic enrolment management, attributed the drop to the federal cap on foreign student visas. “We take pride in being an international institution,” he said, noting that the demographic shift has altered the university’s academic mix.

Similar declines have been reported at the University of Regina and the University of Saskatchewan, where administrators say the downturn threatens not just campus diversity but also the financial stability of several programmes long supported by international student fees.

As Canada fortifies its immigration gates, the world’s largest source of international students finds itself on uncertain ground — with academic dreams caught in the crossfire of geopolitics and policy.