Missiles arced across Gulf skies and brought global aviation to a halt as the expanding confrontation between the United States, Israel and Iran spilled into the United Arab Emirates, shuttering the world’s busiest international transit hub and exposing the fragility of the region’s stability.

Dubai International Airport suspended operations on February 28 after coordinated US and Israeli strikes on Iran triggered retaliatory fire from Tehran. More than 700 flights were cancelled, with services halted indefinitely at both Dubai International and Al Maktoum International Airport — also known as Dubai World Central.

Dubai, long marketed as a neutral sanctuary for commerce and connectivity, found itself abruptly drawn into the widening war.

Videos circulating on social media showed flames at the five-star Fairmont The Palm in Palm Jumeirah, underscoring how swiftly the regional confrontation reached the Gulf’s commercial nerve centre.

Among those stranded were Indian badminton star PV Sindhu and Italy’s Defence Minister Guido Crosetto, as cascading airspace closures rippled across West Asia.

As the Israel-US-Iran confrontation intensifies, scrutiny is mounting over where the United Arab Emirates stands — and how its web of strategic relationships shapes its options in an increasingly combustible landscape.

UAE-Israel ties: Pragmatism over politics

The UAE became the first Gulf Arab state to normalize relations with Israel under the US-brokered Abraham Accords in 2020. The accord marked only the third Arab-Israel peace agreement since 1948, following treaties signed by Egypt and Jordan.

Abu Dhabi’s key condition was that Israel suspend plans to annex parts of the West Bank. Then Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the proposal had been suspended, though not permanently scrapped.

For many Muslim-majority nations, normalization with Israel carries political and reputational costs. For the UAE, however, strategic concerns over Iran, expanding trade prospects with Israel, and deepening security cooperation with Washington outweighed regional hesitations. Bahrain and Morocco soon followed suit.

After the Gaza war erupted in 2023, the UAE publicly criticized Israel and dispatched humanitarian aid to Gaza, but stopped short of severing ties. According to the Doha-based Middle East Council on Global Affairs, the UAE is now Israel’s largest Gulf trading partner, with bilateral trade reaching $3.2 billion in 2024 — an 11% increase over the previous year.

Strategic anchor: Deep security partnership with Washington

The UAE’s alignment with the United States remains central to its defense posture. A Library of Congress report designates the UAE as a US “major defense partner,” hosting American forces and acquiring advanced US military systems, including missile defence platforms and combat aircraft.

Between 1950 and 2023, Washington executed more than $33.8 billion in Foreign Military Sales to the UAE, making it the 11th-largest US defense customer globally by value.

At the heart of this partnership lies Al Dhafra Air Base, south of Abu Dhabi. The base hosts the US Air Force’s 380th Air Expeditionary Wing, comprising 10 aircraft squadrons and drones such as the MQ-9 Reaper. It functions as a critical operational hub and is shared with the UAE Air Force.

Al Dhafra also accommodates airborne early warning and control aircraft, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance platforms, and aerial refueling units. The Gulf Air Warfare Center, based there, provides region-specific military training to roughly 2,000 personnel annually.

Meanwhile, Jebel Ali Port and other UAE ports routinely host US Navy vessels, providing key logistical support in the Gulf.

A narrowing space for neutrality

The UAE has carefully cultivated its image as both a commercial crossroads and a diplomatic bridge in a fractured region. Yet as direct confrontation between Iran, Israel and the United States intensifies, the space for calibrated neutrality appears to be shrinking.

With deep security ties to Washington, expanding economic links with Israel, and geographic proximity to Iran, Abu Dhabi faces one of its most complex strategic calculations in years.

For now, Dubai’s darkened runways stand as a stark reminder: in a region at war, even the world’s busiest gateway is not beyond reach.