India’s school system is in the midst of a quiet but consequential transformation. For the third year in a row, overall enrolment has fallen, even as private schools continue to expand their footprint at a record pace, drawing millions of families away from government classrooms.

According to the latest Unified District Information System for Education Plus (UDISE+) data, total enrolment dropped to 24.69 crore in 2024-25, down from 24.80 crore the previous year and 25.18 crore in 2022-23. This marks the longest sustained slide in more than a decade, with over 11 lakh fewer students in schools this year alone.

The sharpest decline is being felt in government institutions, where enrolment has tumbled from 13.62 crore in 2022-23 to 12.16 crore in 2024-25. In contrast, private schools have swelled to 9.59 crore students, capturing 39% of the total student population—their highest share since 2018.

Officials attribute the fall partly to declining birth rates and demographic shifts, but acknowledge that changing parental preferences are redrawing India’s education map. “Only a fresh Census can establish the extent to which population changes are driving the trend,” an education ministry official said.

The churn is most visible at the primary level (Classes 1–5), where enrolment has thinned significantly. Higher levels—pre-primary, upper primary, secondary, and higher secondary—show marginal gains, while dropout rates have improved notably. At the secondary stage, the dropout rate has fallen from 13.8% in 2022-23 to 8.2% in 2024-25, marking a rare positive amid the broader decline.

School infrastructure too is shifting. The number of government schools slipped to 10.13 lakh, while private schools rose to 3.79 lakh over the same period.

Interestingly, even as the total student body shrank, enrolment among girls edged upward, bucking the downward trend in boys. Gross Enrolment Ratios remain steady, though they are still pegged to projections from the 2011 Census, raising questions about their accuracy today.

The data signals a widening fault line: government schools are shrinking, private schools are expanding, and families are recalibrating their trust in the system. The implications go beyond enrolment counts—touching equity, access, and the very future of India’s public education framework.